Thursday, December 09, 2004

Red, White and Liberal

Alas, this post has nothing at all to do with Alan Colmes. Sorry, but I'm a big baseball fan. (I grew up in MA, how could I not be a big baseball fan?) So occasionally I'll post something about baseball. This happens to be one of those posts. I promise I'll have some more non-baseball related content later today.

Red Sox sign Matt Mantei for 1 year, 750k. White Sox sign Dustin Hermanson for 2 years, 5.5mil.

Right now, I wouldn't trust either of these guys as my closer. At least, not if I was planning on winning. In fact, I wouldn't particularly trust either of these guys as my main set-up man. Hermanson has a 4.31 career ERA. Last year, it was 4.53. His best year, it was 3.13... but that was in 1998. Mantei has a 3.86 ERA. Last year, it was 11.81 (*gulp*). His best year, it was 2.62, in 2003. But his arm is held on with silly putty.

You roll the dice with Mantei - if you lose, you're down 750k. If you win, you get a potentially dominant reliever - career .210 opponents average. You roll the dice with Hermanson - if you lose, you've got a mediocre reliever for 5.5 over 2. If you win, you've got a mediocre reliever for 5.5 over 2.

Frankly, Hermanson will give you the type of contribution you can find in the minors for 550k a year. But he's making 5 times that. Mantei is a gamble, but the potential benefit is so much higher.

These are the types of moves that make me love Theo Epstein. Low risk, high reward. Like Bellhorn last year. These are also the types of moves that supposed small-budget teams should try to make. Instead of throwing 5.5 million at a mediocre pitcher.

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